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A Couple Of Predictions From The Upcoming Only fake watch 2015 Benefit Auction ?And What Might Become The Most Expensive Wristwatch Ever Made

Only fake watch happens once every two years (usually in Monaco, but this year, in Geneva for the first time) as you probably know if you're a HODINKEE reader. You probably also know that the purpose of the auction is to benefit research into better treatments ?and perhaps, someday, even a cure ?for Duchenne Muscular Dystrophy, an inherited, progressive, and usually ultmately terminal illness in which a defect in a key muscle structural protein (dystrophin) causes slow but irreversible loss of muscle tissue. The benefit auction is organized by the Association Monégasque contre les Myopathies ("myopathy" is a general term for muscle tissue disorders) the Monaco Yacht Show, and an auction house which takes responsibility for curating and auctioning a collection of unique pieces made by the world's top watchmaking companies specifically for that purpose. This year, it's the Phillips fake watch Department, which partners with the firm of Bacs and Russo.

The Tudor Heritage Black Bay One

This is the first year that Tudor has participated in Only Watch, and they do so with a fake watch that drew an incredible amount of attention when it was announced, because it was basically the Tudor Black Bay everyone had been waiting for (as a matter of fact, you could go further and argue that it's practically the Replica Rolex everyone has been waiting for as well). This is a modern interpretation of the Tudor Oyster Submariner reference 7923, which was first released in 1955 and which has the interesting distinction of being the only Tudor Sub reference to have been made with a manual-wind, rather than an automatic, movement.

The Black Bay One uses an automatic movement rather than a hand-wound, but that ?and its larger size relative to reference 7923 ?is almost its only concession to modernity. The lollipop seconds hand, straight minute and hour hands, and straight end pieces on the bracelet are all, well, straight from the 7923, as is the big crown and bezel (with the exception of the red triangle around the lume pearl on the 2015 version). Having had a chance to see it in the metal I have to say the straight end end pieces are just as irresistible as I thought they would be (if, you know, you're into that sort of thing; I am because I'm old enough that they remind me of the age I was when I first started noticing watches) but that said, it's really the whole package that sits up and sings. I was kind of surprised to see the estimate, by the way ?the catalog says $3,400 to $4,800 but I wonder if it couldn't do better, maybe a lot better. The Black Bay Black that just came out in a way actually helps underscore the uniqueness of the BB One for Only fake watch ?I happen to seriously dig the hell out of the BB Black (an enthusiasm which having had one on for a week has done absolutely zero to dampen) but boy does it whet the appetite for the Black Bay One, and if a couple-three guys or gals with deep enough pockets want to bridge that gap badly enough this one could be the breakaway not-so-surprising surprise of the auction. The fact that this is the only confirmed unique piece ever to be made by either Replica Rolex or Tudor doesn't hurt its chances.

The Breguet Type XXI 3813

Another very interesting entrant in the stealth luxury, tool fake watch category is from Breguet, which has made a Type XXI chronograph in a platinum case. The modern production of the Type XX-XXI-XXII chronos from Breguet is derived from the Type XX wristwatch chronographs made for the French Air Force, starting in 1954, and the Type XXI has the flyback chrono functionality of the Type XX ( the name, by the way, started out as a milspec designation, not a model name per se, and the original Type XX chronos were flyback chronographs, with black dials, luminous hands, and a bidirectional timing bezel.) The flyback function is an important one in air navigation, where it was crucial for dead reckoning; the flyback function allowed you to time the duration of flight along a certain leg of a plotted course, without losing precious seconds re-setting and then re-starting. The Type XXI is functionally nearly identical (in modern production) to the Type XX, adding a date window.

The talking point of this particular Type XXI is the case material: it's platinum, and this is the first time that Breguet has ever done a Type XXI in platinum. Unless you really know what you're looking at you'd take this one for a steel watch, especially if you know the Type XX watches. The modern Type XX-XXI-XXII replica watches have always been an interesting high-low mix ?great history and utilitarian design with legit vintage styling, but with a certain very French je ne sais quoi, and making one in platinum really supercharges the value proposition. Estimate on this one is $79,000 to $95,000.

The F.P. Journe Tourbillon Souverain Bleu

The F.P. Journe Tourbillon Souverain Bleu is aimed pretty squarely at the hardcore Journe collectors, who tend to be really hardcore ?they're people who generally want something very classical on a certain level; very rebellious ?even avant-garde ?on another; and as rare as possible. A serious Journe collector on the warpath is a force to be reckoned with and I think the Tourbillon Souverain Bleu ought to draw quite a lot of attention from this relatively small but highly motivated sub-set of collectors. This is the only blue-dialed watch, other than the Chronométre Bleu, that Journe has ever made, and like the Chronométre Bleu, which we looked at in a Three On Three from last year, it's cased in tantalum.

As with that watch, the Tourbillon Souverain Bleu has an extremely blue dial ?just what it says on the tin, you might be thinking, but if you've never seen one of Journe's blue dials in person, you ought to try; it's what it says on the tin, and then some. Depending on the lighting they can look everything from almost black, to an almost neon peacock blue and in this watch, that combined with the extremely finely done dial furniture and beautifully finished, wonderfully thin tourbillon carriage makes for a fake watch that's both eye-catching, and worth staring at. Estimate per the catalogue for this one is $265,000 to $424,000 but again, all you need is two serious Journe collectors with a big enough war chest and who knows what could happen.


The Laurent Ferrier Gallet Square Only fake watch

We took a look at the Galet Square from Laurent Ferrier when the new case shape was launched earlier this year and found it a great and very fresh addition to Ferrier's watchmaking, which has always had tons of austere beauty and which, with the addition of the Galet Square, has something a bit more ?not laid back exactly, but perhaps with a bit more spring in its step. For Only Watch, Laurent Ferrier has given us a version with straight lugs, and a semicircular hour track cradling the sub-seconds register at six o'clock.

No changes in the movement, which is the gorgeous-as-always caliber FBN 229.01 micro-rotor and a double direct impulse escapement ?the latter, an invention of Breguet's; check out our technical director Nick Manousos' discussion of its attributes here. It's a hell of a package. The redesign seems both more traditional and more edgy, even a little Steampunk, which fits nicely with the combination of high tech materials like silicon (used in the escapement) with very high horology. Estimate is $31,000 to $42,500.

The Voutilainen GMT-6

I'm going to indulge in a little personal editorializing; I think this is ?just for my personal tastes, for whatever it's worth ?one of the most brain-meltingly beautiful replica watches out there. Just on cosmetics alone it leaves most other replica watches in the dust. The point of departure here appears to be Kari's Vingt-8 (as seen here) as well as, a bit more directly, his GMT decimal minute repeater, but oh, boy, the dial on this one-off ?if it could talk, it'd say, Drop Dead. As the name implies, it's a GMT watch, with a disc showing a second time zone and marked off in 24-hour increments, which can be advanced in one-hour increments via pressure on the crown (no pusher). The dial is engine-turned silver and white gold, with fired enamel in the center and on the 24 hour sub-dial, and honestly, if it doesn't melt your heart, have someone check your pulse.

As great as the fake watch is topside, this is what seals the deal. The movement is, oddly enough, another dual impulse "natural" escapement (same principle as the escapement in the Laurent Ferrier although different in certain particulars). The balance is a whopping, marine-chronometer-esque 13.60 mm in diameter, and it rocks out at 18,000 vph and it also has a very high-test balance spring: Breguet overcoil with a Grossman-type inner terminal curve. That's important because one of the signs of a truly high grade movement for most of watchmaking was how much care was given to the correct shape for both the inner and outer terminal curves as well as the correct attachment points ?it was how you achieved isochronism, or got as close to it as possible in an actual physical mechanism. As terrifying as it is to think of owning only one watch, if it were this fake watch that would sure make monogamy go down easy. Estimate is $95,000 to $106,000.

Vacheron Constantin Métiers d'Art Méchaniques Ajourées

This one is pure hardcore horological eye candy ?it's a red enamel version of Vacheron's Métiers d'Art Méchaniques Ajourées watches, which combine an openworked VC caliber 4400 SQ with an outer enameled chapter ring. There is really not all that much to say about this because it's one of those picture-is-worth-a-thousand-words watches. If you don't like supremely elegant, extra flat, hand-openworked movements that look like they could have been picked up off some Continental dandy's dressing table circa 1928 and which make absolutely no bones about their old-fashioned elegance, this is not the fake watch for you; if, on the other hand, this is your brand of vodka, this is about as good as it gets. Very much not just the thing to pair with jeans and a polo shirt (or hell, why not). Estimate is $74,300 to $84,900.


The Patek Philippe Reference 5016-A In Steel

?The Patek Philippe Reference 5016-A In Steel

Ladies and gents, the Big Kahuna, the 800 pound gorilla, the elephant in the room ?and it's only 36.8 mm in diameter. Funny things happen when Pateks in unusual metals show up at Only fake watch (and other places). My heart goes out to folks who have to come up with estimates for these pieces; in 2011, a steel 3939 repeater went for $1.4 million, and two years later, a titanium 5004 went to $3,985,067, and if this keeps up we're going to need to resort to exponential notation to report auction results. The fake watch you see above is a steel cased reference 5016A-010 ?now, lest we forget, Patek enjoys the reputation it enjoys for some very good reasons and this is a gorgeous piece of ultra-classic watchmaking. What is, for better or worse, going to be on everyone's mind, and lips, is pricing. The estimate on this one is $743,000 to $955,000, and it says a lot about how heavily collectors are betting on Patek ?still ?that this may be way too low. The titanium 5004 had a pre-auction estimate of ?00,000 to 600,000, and at this level, really pretty much anything could happen; the very small group of clients for replica watches like this could be in a competitive mood; Patek could decide it wants it permanently, in which case they will probably get it unless ?I don't know, Tim Cook decides he wants it too; it could fizzle (unlikely but possible), a time machine could appear in Geneva, and Thierry Stern XII could step out and pay in Federation credits; anything. One thing's for sure, everyone will be watching ?this has a much better than even chance to become the most expensive wristwatch ever made.

Check out the entire catalog right here.

Patek-philippe Tudor Vacheron-constantin Kari-voutilainen Phillips Only-watch-2015